The latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show strong job creation and continued workforce participation. However, the improvement also means Australians are unlikely to see any cuts to interest rates before the end of the year.
According to the ABS, the number of people employed rose by just over 42,000 last month, while unemployment fell by around 17,000. This pushed the rate back to where it sat through winter, suggesting September’s increase was a one-off. The participation rate stayed steady at 67 per cent, and underemployment fell slightly to 5.7 per cent. These figures highlight a tight labour market where most Australians seeking work are finding it.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers described the data as an encouraging sign that the economy remains on track, noting that more than 1.2 million jobs have been created since Labour came to power. Full-time employment led the way, with around 55,000 new positions added in October alone.
With unemployment low and inflation still proving stubborn, economists say there is now little justification for a near-term rate cut. The RBA has warned the economy may be close to its full capacity, meaning that lowering rates too soon could risk reigniting price pressures.
Experts suggest the central bank will instead keep its focus on balancing steady employment with slower, more sustainable growth. The RBA’s latest forecasts point to unemployment hovering around 4.4 per cent through the end of next year. Policymakers expect stability, but not a return to the rapid job gains of recent years.
Despite October’s strong numbers, there are signs that employment growth is gradually cooling. Annual job growth has slowed to 1.6 per cent, reflecting reduced hiring in key public sectors such as health, education and government services. Analysts say the private sector has struggled to pick up the slack, with tighter financial conditions and cost pressures limiting expansion.
Still, Australia’s economy remains resilient by international standards. Demand in the housing market has continued to rise, supported by both first-home buyers and investors. Consumer spending has held up better than many predicted. For now, the nation appears to be walking a fine line as policymakers navigate the delicate path toward stable, long-term growth.
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