The figures, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, reflect robust labour demand, especially among women. These figures suggest the economy is holding up better than expected.
April’s employment growth far exceeded market expectations of just 22,500 new jobs. This surge was driven predominantly by women entering or re-entering the workforce, accounting for 65,000 new positions.
Most of these gains were in full-time employment, which saw an increase of 42,000 positions. Part-time employment for women also grew, adding 23,000 roles. In contrast, male employment rose more modestly by 24,000.
Over the past year, total employment has grown by 390,000 people, an annual increase of 2.7 per cent. This has pushed the employment-to-population ratio up to 64.4 per cent, nearing the all-time high of 64.5 per cent.
Despite the strong job gains, the number of people officially unemployed rose slightly by 6,000. This was offset by an increase in labour force participation, which rose by 95,000 people.
The unemployment rate has remained within a narrow band of 3.9 to 4.1 per cent for the past 17 months. This consistency comes alongside falling inflation, which has dropped from 4.1 per cent to 2.4 per cent annually. As a result, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces a complex balancing act in managing interest rate policy.
While the strong labour market may reduce the urgency for aggressive rate cuts, economists still anticipate a 0.25 percentage point cut from the RBA in the near term. Market expectations for future rate cuts have softened slightly, with only 0.73 percentage points of cuts now priced in through the end of the year.
However, not all indicators point to economic strength. Total hours worked remained flat in April, indicating that headline employment growth may not fully reflect rising productivity or output. This could signal a more nuanced picture of economic activity.
The strong jobs data has also renewed debate around the concept of “full employment.” Historically estimated at around 4.5 per cent, some economists now believe Australia’s non-inflationary unemployment threshold may be closer to 4 per cent. This view is supported by the recent decline in wage growth within the private sector.
As Australia continues to navigate cooling inflation and a dynamic labour market, April’s employment figures highlight the economy’s resilience. However, they also highlight the challenges facing policymakers aiming to balance growth with inflation.
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